Which confident signals deserve a second look?

Point Zeno at any field · 24 fields

1 · Who forecasts it

617

forecasters · 650 forecasts · 325 with outcomes

Not ranked yet: too few shared questions.

past record · ranked vs panel median · as of 21 Oct 2026

2 · Where they fail together

too few misses to judge

Confident-miss warnings vs each forecaster's own track record (tree) · interval not measured

Confirmation sample: 132 forecast rows · independent groups: not measured. Inventory above is not the test sample.

10 documented dependence links corpus-wide; unknown never means independent.

practice test · not the served model

3 · Should you trust a forecast?

Check a forecast with Zeno. Supported sources can receive a correction; elsewhere it keeps the reference and labels why.

Evidence · Cross-venue markets

Inventory source: frozen v0.80.2 build census + v0.82 practice run. Counts describe the frozen corpus, not independent samples.
Warning test period: historical: development and later confirmation slices of past data. Calendar boundaries not supplied in this summary.
Comparator and method: each forecaster's own track record (tree); Brier score of confident-miss warnings. CPU tree rehearsal, not the served neural model.
90% interval: Not measured in this export. No interval inferred from row counts or significance values.
Dependence evidence: 10 documented links across the corpus, not Cross-venue markets-specific shared failures. Missing links mean unknown.
Scoring boundary: Past record and practice results are not sealed live performance. Check receipts identify the answer actually served.

Served model: v0.57. Research model: not yet promoted.

What runs Zeno

Member of NVIDIA Inception · H200 research training

Job records, not a total of successful runs. GPU hours not verified here. Inception membership is not an endorsement.

Evidence, not affiliation

Forecast seals carry immutable receipts. A seal proves submission timing, not forecasting skill.

On-chain compute receipts: not verified. Celo token presence does not prove model execution or forecast accuracy.