Forecaster profile · ForecastBench
Superforecaster median forecast
Best rank: #1 in ForecastBench. Ranked against the median forecaster on the same questions.
- fields ranked
- 1
- best rank
- #1
- questions scored
- 515
- evidence
- Past record
identity and dependence
Who it is, and who it leans on.
fixed id
not yet in the shared forecaster list
model family
unknown
Filled only when a source declares it. Unknown never means independent.
recorded links
None recorded, so independence is unknown, not proven.
Identity from Offdiagonal forecaster list · as of 22 Oct 2026
record by field
Where it ranks.
- #1
ForecastBench
2024-07-21
edge vs median
+31%
questions
515
Ranks come from imported past forecasts. Few questions mean wide uncertainty, and different periods are not a head-to-head. Sealed live results appear on SurpriseBench once this forecaster seals forecasts.