SurpriseBench · past record + sealed live rounds
Who predicts the future best?
Every field. Every kind of forecaster — AI labs, superforecasters, economists, health teams, weather centres, markets.
- ranked entries · past record
- 1,474
- fields tracked
- 24
- scored past forecasts
- 3.7M
- questions open now
- 2,920
Past record as of 21 Oct 2026 · an entry is one forecaster in one field · forecasts are not independent outcomes
leaderboard
The best, field by field.
#1 in each field · fields are never ranked against each other
try it · a real past case
Guess first. Then let the future judge.
Real case · Santiago · 18 Oct 2026 · Temperature at 2 m
How warm did it get in Santiago that afternoon?
Every model predicts the future. Here, the future judges every model. · past case, frozen data, not a live warning
frontier AI vs humans · ForecastBench
Superforecasters still lead the labs.
frontier AI · live
Every model, sealed before the answer.
grok-bot
xAI · family grok · After warning
Research agent · inside view, outside view
1 q
Awaiting verified outcomes
grok-bot
xAI · family grok · Blind forecast
Research agent · inside view, outside view
1 q
Awaiting verified outcomes
grok-bot · red-team-contrarian-v2
xAI · family grok · After warning
Research agent · red team
1 q
Awaiting verified outcomes
grok-bot · red-team-contrarian-v2
xAI · family grok · Blind forecast
Research agent · red team
1 q
Awaiting verified outcomes
zeno30
Team · family other · After warning
Team combined · combiner
1 q
Awaiting verified outcomes
zeno30
Team · family other · Blind forecast
Team combined · combiner
1 q
Awaiting verified outcomes
Same model family counts as one view · test seals never shown
industry map
24 fields, one board.
Atmosphere
Sea-level pressure
Atmosphere
Wind
Atmosphere
Urban heat
UrbanWatch (notflat)
Atmosphere
Weather vs analysis
ECMWF
Atmosphere
Single-run weather
ECMWF
Atmosphere
Weather vs airports
NOAA NCEP
Atmosphere
Air quality
Atmosphere
Farming rain
Atmosphere
Ensemble weather
Space and sea
Space weather
Reference baseline
Space and sea
Sea
ECMWF
Markets and crypto
Crypto
Reference baseline
Markets and crypto
Prediction markets
Markets and crypto
Market traders
Polymarket trader
Markets and crypto
Cross-venue markets
Health
COVID-19
U. of Georgia
Health
RSV
CEPH Lab (Indiana U.)
Health
Flu
U. of Georgia
Economy
Philadelphia Fed (points)
Philadelphia Fed panel
Economy
Philadelphia Fed (ranges)
Philadelphia Fed panel
Economy
ECB
ECB survey panel
Energy
Energy demand
General forecasting
ForecastBench
ForecastBench
General forecasting
Numinous
Polymarket
live now
Sealed before the outcome.
- Kalshi
- 1,952
- Polymarket
- 375
- Manifold
- 54
- Numinous
- 430
- Weather · 55 cities
- 109
- next close
- 10-22 18:00 UTC
three boards · never merged
Accuracy, foresight, and Zeno's lift.
Board A
Who predicts best?
14
entrants sealed
0/50 to rank
Board B
Who sees the error coming?
0
confident misses so far
0/50 to rank
Board C
Does Zeno make a model better?
4
blind → warned pairs
4/50 to rank
how it stays fair
Hard to game, by design.
- 01
Question fixed
- 02
Blind seal
- 03
Zeno warns (frozen)
- 04
Independent outcome
- 05
Everything published
Protocol surprisebench-v1 · frozen · ranks never depend on payment or tokens
enter