Research ledger · experimental

Forecast Failure Watch.

Every eligible open weather forecast is registered before its outcome, flagged or not. Outcomes are scored later against a simple rule at the same alert budget.

cases registered: 165
Zeno alerts: 13
simple-rule alerts: 18
daily batches: 2

pending 163caught 0missed 0false alarm 0quiet, correct 0unsupported 2not assessed 0unresolved 0

No outcomes yet: the first station readings arrive after 22 Oct 00:00 UTC and are scored hourly.

Next model (v0.82) can be judged after 300 fresh scored site-days: 0 so far.

Model v0.80.2 beta · fingerprint 34a97cbe1f60 · rule watch-v2-20261021 · risk scores are experimental, not validated probabilities

01 · ledger

All registered cases, ranked by Zeno's experimental risk.

Flagged and unflagged cases stay side by side. The case count never shrinks.

site	target (UTC)	forecasters	consensus range	risk	flag	status
krakow	10-22 19:00	12 · 10 families	5.6–10.6 °C	0.099		pending
los angeles	10-24 19:00	9 · 7 families	16.5–29.9 °C	0.098		pending
santiago	10-22 19:00	9 · 7 families	15.7–22.9 °C	0.097		pending
london	10-24 19:00	12 · 10 families	13.2–16.4 °C	0.095	rule	pending
mexico city	10-22 19:00	9 · 7 families	14.5–25.9 °C	0.093		pending
krakow	10-22 01:00	12 · 10 families	3.8–18.4 °C	0.090		pending
krakow	10-24 19:00	12 · 10 families	4.6–13.3 °C	0.090		pending
new york	10-22 19:00	9 · 7 families	14.9–22.0 °C	0.088		pending
tokyo	10-22 01:00	9 · 7 families	18.1–25.4 °C	0.086		pending
delhi	10-24 19:00	9 · 7 families	16.8–32.3 °C	0.086		pending
santiago	10-22 01:00	9 · 7 families	11.4–19.9 °C	0.085		pending
mexico city	10-24 19:00	9 · 7 families	15.1–27.4 °C	0.084		pending
cairo	10-22 19:00	9 · 7 families	22.1–26.4 °C	0.084		pending
sao paulo	10-22 19:00	9 · 7 families	16.7–30.6 °C	0.083		pending
beijing	10-22 19:00	9 · 7 families	3.5–16.4 °C	0.083	rule	pending
london	10-22 01:00	12 · 10 families	6.2–12.8 °C	0.083		pending
lagos	10-22 19:00	9 · 7 families	24.9–32.4 °C	0.082	rule	pending
tokyo	10-22 19:00	9 · 7 families	8.3–23.8 °C	0.082		pending
lagos	10-22 01:00	9 · 7 families	24.4–30.8 °C	0.082	rule	pending
sao paulo	10-22 01:00	9 · 7 families	15.4–20.0 °C	0.080		pending
cairo	10-24 19:00	9 · 7 families	21.9–27.9 °C	0.080		pending
lagos	10-24 19:00	9 · 7 families	24.7–32.5 °C	0.079	rule	pending
tokyo	10-24 19:00	9 · 7 families	14.2–21.0 °C	0.078		pending
mexico city	10-22 01:00	9 · 7 families	14.1–22.3 °C	0.077		pending
santiago	10-24 19:00	9 · 7 families	11.5–25.0 °C	0.077		pending
beijing	10-24 19:00	9 · 7 families	8.9–18.6 °C	0.075		pending
london	10-22 19:00	12 · 10 families	6.3–17.7 °C	0.075		pending
new york	10-24 19:00	9 · 7 families	10.5–20.7 °C	0.075		pending
new york	10-22 01:00	9 · 7 families	7.6–20.5 °C	0.074		pending
los angeles	10-22 19:00	9 · 7 families	15.4–22.4 °C	0.073		pending
sao paulo	10-24 19:00	9 · 7 families	17.1–32.1 °C	0.073		pending
los angeles	10-22 01:00	9 · 7 families	15.3–24.3 °C	0.071		pending
beijing	10-22 01:00	9 · 7 families	-0.6–16.8 °C	0.071		pending
delhi	10-22 19:00	9 · 7 families	14.6–34.0 °C	0.071		pending
cairo	10-22 01:00	9 · 7 families	15.3–24.8 °C	0.067		pending
delhi	10-22 01:00	9 · 7 families	14.4–32.9 °C	0.067		pending
vancouver	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	5.5–13.1 °C	0.135	Zeno	pending
athens	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	14.8–21.7 °C	0.130	Zeno	pending
phoenix	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	18.3–36.5 °C	0.127	Zeno + rule	pending
boston	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	12.3–20.8 °C	0.126	Zeno + rule	pending
montreal	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	5.4–20.7 °C	0.124	Zeno	pending
buenos aires	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	11.8–28.1 °C	0.123	Zeno	pending
singapore	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	24.5–30.1 °C	0.123	Zeno + rule	pending
manchester	10-24 18:00	12 · 10 families	9.8–17.9 °C	0.122	Zeno	pending
vienna	10-24 18:00	12 · 10 families	4.9–14.4 °C	0.122	Zeno	pending
addis ababa	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	12.4–22.7 °C	0.121	Zeno	pending
helsinki	10-22 00:00	12 · 10 families	6.1–13.4 °C	0.120	Zeno	pending
oslo	10-22 18:00	12 · 10 families	8.1–12.6 °C	0.120	Zeno	pending
oslo	10-22 00:00	12 · 10 families	8.5–12.4 °C	0.120	Zeno + rule	pending
denver	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	19.4–25.0 °C	0.120		pending
rome	10-24 18:00	12 · 10 families	10.5–18.6 °C	0.119		pending
phoenix	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	19.3–30.9 °C	0.119		pending
honolulu	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	23.5–33.0 °C	0.117	rule	pending
bangkok	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	23.3–33.0 °C	0.117		pending
cape town	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	14.7–22.5 °C	0.117		pending
istanbul	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	13.9–24.2 °C	0.117		pending
singapore	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	22.6–32.3 °C	0.117	rule	pending
anchorage	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	-4.6–17.2 °C	0.117		pending
montreal	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	3.2–12.4 °C	0.116		pending
singapore	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	24.0–30.6 °C	0.116	rule	pending
panama city	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	22.4–31.0 °C	0.116		pending
vienna	10-22 00:00	12 · 10 families	8.7–14.4 °C	0.116		pending
vancouver	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	6.0–17.4 °C	0.116		pending
dublin	10-24 18:00	12 · 10 families	6.9–18.3 °C	0.115		pending
zurich	10-24 18:00	12 · 10 families	4.5–11.3 °C	0.115		pending
san salvador	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	23.4–35.5 °C	0.115	rule	pending
buenos aires	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	15.2–18.9 °C	0.115		pending
manchester	10-22 18:00	12 · 10 families	5.4–14.4 °C	0.115		pending
panama city	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	25.6–34.5 °C	0.114		pending
zurich	10-22 18:00	12 · 10 families	5.3–15.2 °C	0.114		pending
manchester	10-22 00:00	12 · 10 families	4.8–9.9 °C	0.114		pending
zurich	10-22 00:00	12 · 10 families	5.1–11.2 °C	0.113	rule	pending
dublin	10-22 18:00	12 · 10 families	8.0–15.6 °C	0.113		pending
atlanta	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	11.9–25.9 °C	0.113		pending
rio	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	19.4–29.4 °C	0.112		pending
casablanca	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	13.8–22.6 °C	0.112	rule	pending
rome	10-22 18:00	12 · 10 families	12.6–24.5 °C	0.112		pending
vienna	10-22 18:00	12 · 10 families	6.2–16.3 °C	0.111		pending
bucharest	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	11.0–18.7 °C	0.111		pending
dublin	10-22 00:00	12 · 10 families	4.7–11.6 °C	0.111		pending
helsinki	10-24 18:00	12 · 10 families	8.0–12.4 °C	0.110		pending
osaka	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	15.5–27.2 °C	0.110		pending
san salvador	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	25.0–32.5 °C	0.110		pending
helsinki	10-22 18:00	12 · 10 families	8.8–14.2 °C	0.110		pending
taipei	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	20.1–27.5 °C	0.110		pending
dubai	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	21.0–34.6 °C	0.110	rule	pending
rome	10-22 00:00	12 · 10 families	12.7–20.6 °C	0.109		pending
denver	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	3.2–29.4 °C	0.109		pending
cape town	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	13.8–17.6 °C	0.109		pending
oslo	10-24 18:00	12 · 10 families	6.7–11.8 °C	0.108		pending
rio	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	22.4–39.0 °C	0.108		pending
buenos aires	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	14.6–25.0 °C	0.108		pending
cape town	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	12.7–20.5 °C	0.108		pending
nairobi	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	20.0–28.6 °C	0.108		pending
bangkok	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	22.9–33.8 °C	0.107		pending
panama city	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	27.2–34.5 °C	0.107		pending
dubai	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	24.7–37.4 °C	0.107		pending
casablanca	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	18.2–25.3 °C	0.107	rule	pending
montreal	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	6.7–16.0 °C	0.107		pending
istanbul	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	11.8–20.3 °C	0.106		pending
taipei	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	18.7–32.3 °C	0.105		pending
denver	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	11.6–30.5 °C	0.105		pending
casablanca	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	18.3–24.9 °C	0.105		pending
atlanta	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	15.5–24.2 °C	0.104		pending
athens	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	14.3–22.4 °C	0.104		pending
honolulu	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	21.8–28.8 °C	0.104		pending
vancouver	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	9.2–22.5 °C	0.103		pending
taipei	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	20.0–31.6 °C	0.103		pending
bogota	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	10.7–18.7 °C	0.100		pending
minneapolis	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	13.1–30.3 °C	0.100		pending
boston	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	7.8–21.7 °C	0.100		pending
minneapolis	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	11.3–23.9 °C	0.100		pending
honolulu	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	22.4–28.6 °C	0.099		pending
phoenix	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	15.9–30.7 °C	0.099		pending
athens	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	18.3–23.2 °C	0.099		pending
osaka	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	16.9–22.8 °C	0.099		pending
rio	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	19.4–25.3 °C	0.098		pending
minneapolis	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	16.7–29.1 °C	0.098		pending
istanbul	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	9.8–21.3 °C	0.098		pending
lisbon	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	12.4–21.8 °C	0.096		pending
anchorage	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	-0.5–5.7 °C	0.096		pending
dubai	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	25.4–35.5 °C	0.096		pending
bangkok	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	22.7–32.2 °C	0.095		pending
boston	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	8.1–13.5 °C	0.095		pending
saskatchewan	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	5.6–20.8 °C	0.095		pending
lisbon	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	14.3–20.7 °C	0.094		pending
nairobi	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	16.9–31.0 °C	0.094		pending
hong kong	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	19.6–31.5 °C	0.093		pending
nairobi	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	15.7–24.7 °C	0.093		pending
bucharest	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	8.7–17.0 °C	0.092		pending
san salvador	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	16.9–33.3 °C	0.091		pending
anchorage	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	-8.5–6.1 °C	0.090		pending
addis ababa	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	9.9–25.3 °C	0.089		pending
lima	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	22.9–34.7 °C	0.089		pending
toronto	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	8.8–20.1 °C	0.089		pending
addis ababa	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	4.6–21.1 °C	0.088		pending
bucharest	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	5.2–23.1 °C	0.088		pending
hong kong	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	20.0–29.8 °C	0.087		pending
hong kong	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	18.0–35.9 °C	0.087		pending
mumbai	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	25.7–35.5 °C	0.087		pending
lisbon	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	9.8–18.7 °C	0.087		pending
bogota	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	15.7–26.8 °C	0.086		pending
atlanta	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	17.2–31.4 °C	0.086		pending
osaka	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	6.4–23.8 °C	0.085		pending
central thailand	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	23.1–31.8 °C	0.082		pending
lima	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	23.0–32.7 °C	0.082		pending
toronto	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	12.7–22.6 °C	0.081		pending
saskatchewan	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	5.8–21.1 °C	0.081	rule	pending
toronto	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	5.8–15.7 °C	0.080		pending
chicago	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	7.9–24.8 °C	0.080		pending
bogota	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	12.7–27.0 °C	0.079		pending
houston	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	21.1–29.9 °C	0.078		pending
saskatchewan	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	-0.1–6.5 °C	0.078		pending
lima	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	21.4–26.2 °C	0.077		pending
central thailand	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	22.4–30.4 °C	0.076		pending
mumbai	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	23.9–35.7 °C	0.076		pending
chicago	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	6.9–32.9 °C	0.074		pending
central thailand	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	22.3–34.2 °C	0.074		pending
chicago	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	11.2–26.6 °C	0.073		pending
houston	10-22 18:00	9 · 7 families	22.2–33.5 °C	0.071		pending
mumbai	10-22 00:00	9 · 7 families	23.0–35.8 °C	0.070		pending
houston	10-24 18:00	9 · 7 families	23.3–34.2 °C	0.065		pending
moscow	10-24 18:00	2 · 2 families	3.1–12.0 °C	0.059		pending
moscow	10-22 18:00	1 · 1 families	—	—		unsupported
moscow	10-22 00:00	1 · 1 families	—	—		unsupported

02 · locked rules

Fixed before the first case.

Changing any rule starts a new ledger version.

Alert budget: top 10% of assessed cases per batch by shared-failure risk; a separate top 10% by confident-miss risk
Correction: interval score (90%) of Zeno's validated range vs the reference, scored separately
Simple rule: top 10% of assessed cases per batch by panel disagreement (sd of member midpoints / median member range width)
Miss: outcome outside the ORIGINAL calibrated consensus 90% range (the reference), never Zeno's corrected range
Collective miss: at least two independent forecasting families each miss their own 90% range on the same case
Grouping: precision/recall per site x local day cluster with a 90% Wilson interval; rows never count as independent
Horizon: scored when the station reading for target_at is published; unresolved after 7 days stays unresolved