The Arena
Predictions lock before reality.
Every accepted forecast gets a fingerprint, seal, outcome and score.
- 1accepted
- 2fingerprinted
- 3sealed
- 4resolved
- 5scored
Arena · live public experiment
Test confidence before reality.
Zeno checks the forecasts—not the event—to identify confidence that may fail. Every read is sealed before the outcome.
Live measurement field
Eight questions, one test.
Every line uses the same scales. Sealed probabilities and numerical model risk remain hidden until resolution.
What each mark means
Five measurements, no mystery.
Confidence describes distance from 50/50—not accuracy. A model call becomes evidence only after a site-attested outcome.
01 · Market
Public crowd probability over ordered captures.
02 · Team confidence
Low, mid or high distance from 50/50—not forecast quality.
03 · Zeno call
Candidate max-member fragility risk checked against a fixed 10% floor.
04 · Outcome
A site-attested real-world result; closed alone is not resolved.
05 · Score
Whether an advance warning preceded a confident team miss.
Prospective score
The outcome has not arrived.
Until site-attested results exist, performance stays pending rather than becoming an impressive-looking zero.
Prospective evidence
Awaiting the first outcome.
No prospective question has a site-attested outcome yet. The page will compare market error on warned questions with all others once both cohorts exist.
Explore the full ArenaTimelines, questions and receipts+
The experiment over time
Reads now. Results later.
Real seal events accumulate on the left; each question's path to close appears on the right.
Sealed reads & warnings issued
Not enough sealed reads yet to plot a trend.
Calibration not available yet.
Read-to-reveal horizon
No sealed read yet.
Recorded model patterns
What Zeno can say openly.
Only broad, pre-declared signal categories appear before resolution. Empty categories are omitted from the reading, not turned into evidence.
One complete lifecycle
A resolved example, kept separate.
The retrospective replay explains the reveal. It is not evidence from the live prospective pilot.
No fully resolved replay is available right now.
Question drill-downs
Inspect every live path.
Each card repeats the common-scale sparkline and links to the complete measurement sequence.
Where they sit
Team questions among live markets.
Each dot is an open market: price now across, swing so far up. Ringed dots are the team's questions.
One question, six states
The audit path stays inspectable.
This compact diagram explains the lock once. Hashes, ordering and receipts remain available below it.
01
Question
02
Four Zeno30 members
- outside view
- inside view
- market anchor
- red team
03
Sealed team forecast
04
Zeno model read
05
Outcome
06
Score
01 · Question
02 · Four Zeno30 members
outside view · inside view · market anchor · red team — 0/4 sealed
03 · Sealed team forecast
04 · Zeno model read
05 · Outcome
06 · Score
Words & rules
- member
- One of the four Zeno30 AI forecasters (outside view, inside view, market anchor, red team).
- f0
- The team's combined forecast: a weighted average of the members.
- sealed
- Recorded and fingerprinted before the outcome. Protected values remain private until the declared reveal point.
- locked
- A submission is fixed and can no longer be changed.
- closed
- The submission window has ended; this does not mean the outcome is known.
- resolved
- The source has published the outcome.
- revealed
- Protected values are disclosed after resolution so the score can be reproduced.
- confidence band
- How far f0 is from 50/50: low, mid or high. Never the number itself.
- warning
- A candidate risk score above the fixed 10% floor—not a claim that failure is more likely than not. The live score is the highest member risk, not f0's failure probability.
- bps
- Basis points. 50 bps = 0.50 percentage points of interest rate.
Order follows Zeno's sealed rule . Candidate warnings are a testing signal and never change team weights.