Expected future, beside the credible unexpected
Deterministic reference models and bounded perturbations. Nothing here is a trained forecast — it is an orchestration of synthetic references.
pipeline stage 02
Opened from How it works with the Financial Services episode preloaded and a regime shift injected, so admission control withdraws references that left their validity envelope. Advance the clock and watch the credible tails separate from the expected trajectory.
Scenario templates
Preloaded episodes — assumptions, clock position and injections set for you. Every control below stays editable.
Domain
Initial state
Undercollateralized credit line — synthetic borrower 0x…8fa2
Assumptions
These change how consequence is read, not what the references predict.
Tails below the floor stay visible but are marked discounted — a tail is never silently deleted.
0 reads consequence credibility-weighted; 1 reads it worst-case, ignoring how likely the tail is.