Scenario explorer
Expected future, beside the credible unexpected
Deterministic reference models and bounded perturbations. Nothing here is a trained forecast — it is an orchestration of synthetic references.
Demo modelSynthetic dataResearch preview
pipeline stage 04
Opened from How it works with the Earth Observation episode preloaded. Advance the clock and watch the credible tails separate from the expected trajectory.
Scenario templates
Preloaded episodes — assumptions, clock position and injections set for you. Every control below stays editable.
Domain
Initial state
Wildfire / fuel-state coupling — synthetic basin W-14
Wind speed36.2 km/h
Fuel dryness64.0 index
Relative humidity54.0 %
Satellite coverage81.5 %
Assumptions
These change how consequence is read, not what the references predict.
exposure · h1 · near×1.00
exposure · h4 · medium×1.00
exposure · h10 · long×1.00
credibility floor0.15
Tails below the floor stay visible but are marked discounted — a tail is never silently deleted.
risk aversion0.50
0 reads consequence credibility-weighted; 1 reads it worst-case, ignoring how likely the tail is.
Time & injections
observation 6/12