Expected future, beside the credible unexpected
Deterministic reference models and bounded perturbations. Nothing here is a trained forecast — it is an orchestration of synthetic references.
pipeline stage 05
Opened from How it works with the Critical Infrastructure episode preloaded and a sensor failure injected, so the blindness channel is separated from genuine calm. Advance the clock and watch the credible tails separate from the expected trajectory.
Scenario templates
Preloaded episodes — assumptions, clock position and injections set for you. Every control below stays editable.
Domain
Initial state
Identity & operational resilience — synthetic estate CI-3
Assumptions
These change how consequence is read, not what the references predict.
Tails below the floor stay visible but are marked discounted — a tail is never silently deleted.
0 reads consequence credibility-weighted; 1 reads it worst-case, ignoring how likely the tail is.