Expected future, beside the credible unexpected
Deterministic reference models and bounded perturbations. Nothing here is a trained forecast — it is an orchestration of synthetic references.
pipeline stage 04
Opened from How it works with the Critical Infrastructure episode preloaded. Advance the clock and watch the credible tails separate from the expected trajectory.
Scenario templates
Preloaded episodes — assumptions, clock position and injections set for you. Every control below stays editable.
Domain
Initial state
Identity & operational resilience — synthetic estate CI-3
Assumptions
These change how consequence is read, not what the references predict.
Tails below the floor stay visible but are marked discounted — a tail is never silently deleted.
0 reads consequence credibility-weighted; 1 reads it worst-case, ignoring how likely the tail is.