Scenario explorer
Expected future, beside the credible unexpected
Deterministic reference models and bounded perturbations. Nothing here is a trained forecast — it is an orchestration of synthetic references.
Demo modelSynthetic dataResearch preview
Domain
Initial state
Wildfire / fuel-state coupling — synthetic basin W-14
Wind speed36.2 km/h
Fuel dryness64.0 index
Relative humidity54.0 %
Satellite coverage81.5 %
Assumptions
These change how consequence is read, not what the references predict.
exposure · h1 · near×1.00
exposure · h4 · medium×1.00
exposure · h10 · long×1.00
credibility floor0.15
Tails below the floor stay visible but are marked discounted — a tail is never silently deleted.
risk aversion0.50
0 reads consequence credibility-weighted; 1 reads it worst-case, ignoring how likely the tail is.
Time & injections
observation 6/12