Surprise memory
What the models did not capture, and what we did about it
Magnitude of a surprise and novelty of a surprise are stored separately. Similarity uses a normalized feature-vector distance placeholder pending real embeddings.
Demo modelSynthetic dataResearch preview
Surprise state over time
Magnitude and novelty are stored separately; markers show where a regime was opened or re-fitted.
— impact-- novelty○ regime change
Fuel-state regime break, basin W-09
Late-season dryness with vegetation curing far outside the modelled seasonal envelope.
- What happened?
- Late-season dryness with vegetation curing far outside the modelled seasonal envelope.
- Which expectation failed?
- Historical analogue assumed curing plateaus after week 32.
- What happened next?
- Spread rates stayed inside physical bounds but at the upper constraint for 11 days.
- Was the model updated?
- Yes — fuel-state prior widened, analogue reference down-weighted.
- Resolution
- New regime opened; analogue reference re-weighted for late-season curing.
Vegetation / fuel stateHistorical analogue
similar previous surprise: 94% · embedding placeholder [0.71, 0.42, 0.18, 0.66, 0.29]