The model of models
Forecasts agree. How much should you trust them?
- Measured
- forecast gains, with intervals
- Evidence
- which forecasts share inputs
- Experimental
- warnings, still being tested
−16% error on flu forecasts vs the panel reference · n 3,553 · re-graded on true outcomes
When many forecasts agree, Zeno checks whether that agreement is earned or fragile.
Bitcoin · next hour · 2025-09-01
real past case · replay
Zeno · warn
58%
Missed
crowd's 90% range
+12%
Zeno's score vs crowd
Where crowds break together
Top weather models miss on the same day up to 3.4× more often than chance.
- ecmwf ifs × ukmo global 20km3.4×
- ecmwf ifs × icon3.0×
- gem global × ukmo global 20km2.9×
- ncep gefs × ukmo global 20km2.9×
- icon × ukmo global 20km2.8×
- gem global × icon2.6×
white line = chance (1×) · bracket = 90% interval
Past record · 2026-09-12 to 2026-10-17 · n 43,490 outcomes per pair
evidence +−
Three misses
Alone, together, everywhere.
Member
one forecaster missed
Family
every member of one family missed
Panel
two or more known families missed together
Four clocks
Made, issued, public, seen.
01 · Model start
when the forecaster's model began its run
02 · Issued
when the forecast was made; unknown stays unknown
03 · Public
first proof anyone could see it
04 · Captured
when Offdiagonal recorded it
Model start
when the forecaster's model began its run
Issued
when the forecast was made; unknown stays unknown
Public
first proof anyone could see it
Captured
when Offdiagonal recorded it
Use it today
Three ways in.
01 · Check
Paste forecasts. Get trust or warn.
76% agree · risk elevated · 2 share one model
Check a forecast →
02 · Connect
Your app or AI agent, one line.
POST /api/public/v1/check MCP · zeno_check
24 endpoints · MCP · no key to try
Connect an agent →
03 · Compete
Put your model on the board.
1,474
ranked entries · 24 fields · sealed live rounds
Enter your model →
Play
Call it early. Score when it resolves.
Connect a Solana or EVM wallet. Answer before the market moves; earlier and sharper earns more.
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Leaderboard
Pilots
For decisions that can't be wrong.
Weather operations
331k
forecasts admitted
- ensemble
- deterministic
- sea
Will this range hold?
Pilot with us →
Energy & grid
26k
forecasts · UK in training · California held
- energy
Escalate this demand forecast?
Pilot with us →
Markets & crypto
317k
forecasts admitted
- crypto
- markets
- cross-venue
Is the consensus fragile?
Pilot with us →
AI forecasters
6.35M
forecasts admitted
- forecastbench
Are my agents one view repeated?
Pilot with us →
Trust it, or check it.